Impact Of Changes Research Articles

Prognostic Significance of Preoperative and Postoperative Evaluation of Combined Tumor Markers for Patients With Colon Cancer.

The combined value of the tumor markers carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) in patients with colon cancer (CC) is unclear. This study aimed to investigate the role of composite tumor markers in the prognosis of CC. Patients who underwent curative resection of colon adenocarcinoma were enrolled. The tumor marker status before and after the operation was used to divide the patients into groups according to the number of tumor markers with abnormal expression, and recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) of different groups were compared. The impact of changes in composite tumor markers in the perioperative period on outcomes was further explored. Ultimately, 531 patients were enrolled in the study. As the number of preoperative and postoperative elevated tumor markers increased, both RFS and OS rates became lower (both P<0.05). Further analysis revealed that the number of elevated tumor markers after resection can significantly affect the outcomes (both P<0.05). In patients with abnormal preoperative tumor markers, normalization of markers after surgery was a protective factor for prognosis (both P<0.05), and patients with postoperative elevated levels of both tumor markers had a 5.5-fold and 6-fold increase in the risk of recurrence and death. In addition, patients with elevated markers after surgery had a high risk of recurrence within 5 years after colectomy. Postoperative tumor markers had a better ability to differentiate postoperative outcomes in patients with CC than preoperative tumor markers. Patients whose tumor markers normalized after surgery had a better prognosis.

Revisiting resistant hypertension in kidney disease.

As compared to controlled or uncontrolled hypertension, resistant hypertension in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) poses a significantly increased healthcare burden due to greater target end-organ damage including cardiovascular disease and CKD progression. Patients with CKD have two to three times higher risk of developing resistant hypertension. True resistant hypertension needs to be distinguished from apparent treatment resistant hypertension (aTRH); however, it is usually not possible in epidemiological studies. Moreover, impact of contemporary guidelines changes in the target blood pressure (BP) goal to less than 130/80 mmHg remains to be determined. Up to half of patients with CKD meet aTRH criteria using 2017 ACC/AHA target BP less than 130/80 mmHg. Excess sodium retention in extracellular and tissue compartment remains the cornerstone cause of resistance to the treatment in CKD. Maximizing and optimizing the diuretic regimen in addition to dietary sodium restriction plays a critical role in these patients. Management requires a trustworthy provider-patient relationship facilitating identification and intervention for the barriers restricting the uptake of lifestyle modifications and medications. Recently, renal denervation has been approved and many other novel agents are on the horizon for treatment of true resistant hypertension associated with CKD. This review discusses the latest in the pathophysiology, definition, identification and treatment strategies of resistant hypertension in individuals with CKD. Further investigations are required to identify the prevalence, future implication and treatment outcome data for true resistant hypertension associated with CKD.

Finding the Words: How Does the Aging Brain Process Language? A Focused Review of Brain Connectivity and Compensatory Pathways.

As people age, there is a natural decline in cognitive functioning and brain structure. However, the relationship between brain function and cognition in older adults is neither straightforward nor uniform. Instead, it is complex, influenced by multiple factors, and can vary considerably from one person to another. Reserve, compensation, and maintenance mechanisms may help explain why some older adults can maintain high levels of performance while others struggle. These mechanisms are often studied concerning memory and executive functions that are particularly sensitive to the effects of aging. However, language abilities can also be affected by age, with changes in production fluency. The impact of brain changes on language abilities needs to be further investigated to understand the dynamics and patterns of aging, especially successful aging. We previously modeled several compensatory profiles of language production and lexical access/retrieval in aging within the Lexical Access and Retrieval in Aging (LARA) model. In the present paper, we propose an extended version of the LARA model, called LARA-Connectivity (LARA-C), incorporating recent evidence on brain connectivity. Finally, we discuss factors that may influence the strategies implemented with aging. The LARA-C model can serve as a framework to understand individual performance and open avenues for possible personalized interventions.

Climate Change and Socio-Economic Impacts: Determinants of Vulnerability for Developing Countries

Climate change is the connected system of solar cycle that creates fluctuations weather arrays across tropics to polls. Anticipated climate changes for the 21st century have been encountered complex challenges for humanity that significantly influence over diverse components such as environmental, ecological, socio-political and socio-economic systems among others. This study incorporates a desk literature review and at the first step researchers shortlisted the keywords regarding climate change, socioeconomic impacts and determinants of vulnerability. Mixed method approach applied for this desk review. Numerous online search engines such as Google, Google Scholar, Scopus, Web of Science and Springer were selected to review the published research studies. The collected data comprises on various forms such as book chapters, books, research articles, reports, working papers, organizational evaluation studies and conferences papers. After strict inclusion and exclusion criteria researchers gathered to 89 studies from 31 publications outlets, which were interrelated to different search engine and covering climate change impacts on developing countries. The findings endorsed the climate change socio-economic impacts are more sever particularly in developing countries of south Asia like Pakistan. The astonishing and spatial heterogeneities are the clear indications for comprehensive integrated interventions, policies and procedure to eliminate or reduce socio-economic climate change impacts of developing countries. Keywords: Climate change, Socio-economic impacts, Determinants of vulnerability, Environmental degradation, climate change and developing countries

Modeling the impact of measured and projected climate and management systems on agricultural fields: Surface runoff, soil moisture, and soil erosion.

As global climate change poses a challenge to crop production, it is imperative to prioritize effective adaptation of agricultural systems based on a scientific understanding of likely impacts. In this study, we applied an integrated watershed modeling framework to examine the impacts of projected climate on runoff, soil moisture, and soil erosion under different management systems in Central Oklahoma. The proposed model uses measured climate data and three downscaled ensembles from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) at the water resources and erosion watershed to understand the impact of climate change and various climate conditions under three management systems: (1) continuous winter wheat (Triticum aestivum) under conventional tillage (WW-CT; baseline system), (2) continuous winter wheat under no-till (WW-NT), and (3) cool and warm season forage cover crop mixes under no-till (CC-NT). The study indicates that the occurrence of agricultural drought is projected to increase while erosion rates will remain unchanged under the WW-CT. In contrast, climate simulations imposed on the WW-NT and CC-NT systems significantly reduce runoff and sediment while preserving soil moisture levels. Especially, implementing the CC-NT system can bolster food security and foster sustainable farming practices in Central Oklahoma in the face of a changing climate.

The impact of land use and cover changes on river flows in Wundanyi Catchment of Taita Hills, Kenya (1970–2030)

&lt;p&gt;Taita hills are one of the most important biodiversity hotspots of Kenya but experiencing a high rate of deforestation due conversion of its original forestland to agriculture and settlement during the last century. These landscape dynamics coupled with rainfall fluctuations in these critical ecosystems may significantly affect water resource distribution and food security in Taita Taveta County and its environs. This study aimed to establish the trends of land use/cover change (LUCC) in Wundanyi catchment from 1970 to 2030 and predict their specific and combined effects on surface runoff and stream flow in the same period. The analysis was based on statistical trend analysis and dynamic landscape modeling using both historical and primary data from Wundanyi catchment, and Landsat TM and ETM+ imagery of Taita Hills for 1990, 2000, and 2010. Results show highly variable mean seasonal and annual values of discharge in Wundanyi catchment probably attributed to environmental changes affecting Taita Hills in general and Wundanyi catchment in particular. Compared to 1990, major land use/cover changes in 2010 were featured by the expansion of built-up area (250%), plantation forest (23.7%), broadleaved forest (17.4%), and thicket (15.9%). Was also notable the decrease in woodland (−30.3%), cropland (−21.6%), and shrubland (−0.8%). Dynamic spatial trends by the year 2030 will be evidenced by increased thicket by 0.41% per annum (&lt;em&gt;R&lt;/em&gt;&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; = 81.6%), and by decreased plantation forests (−0.13%; &lt;em&gt;R&lt;/em&gt;&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; = 91.3%), woodland (−0.10%; &lt;em&gt;R&lt;/em&gt;&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; = 77.6%), shrubland (−0.11%; &lt;em&gt;R&lt;/em&gt;&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; = 85.2%), broadleaved forests (−0.03%; &lt;em&gt;R&lt;/em&gt;&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; = 56.6%) and cropland (−0.09%; &lt;em&gt;R&lt;/em&gt;&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; of 84.4). These changes will shape the catchment landscape and influence its hydrology, unless the existing forest and agricultural policy interventions are enforced. Hence, crop diversification, agroforestry, and soil and water conservation structures are recommended to maintain effective control of LUCC on hydrological processes going on in the Wundanyi catchment.&lt;strong&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Impact of air pollution and climate change on mental health outcomes: an umbrella review of global evidence.

The impact of air pollution and climate change on mental health has recently raised strong concerns. However, a comprehensive overview analyzing the existing evidence while addressing relevant biases is lacking. This umbrella review systematically searched the PubMed/Medline, Scopus and PsycINFO databases (up to June 26, 2023) for any systematic review with meta-analysis investigating the association of air pollution or climate change with mental health outcomes. We used the R metaumbrella package to calculate and stratify the credibility of the evidence according to criteria (i.e., convincing, highly suggestive, suggestive, or weak) that address several biases, complemented by sensitivity analyses. We included 32 systematic reviews with meta-analysis that examined 284 individual studies and 237 associations of exposures to air pollution or climate change hazards and mental health outcomes. Most associations (n=195, 82.3%) involved air pollution, while the rest (n=42, 17.7%) regarded climate change hazards (mostly focusing on temperature: n=35, 14.8%). Mental health outcomes in most associations (n=185, 78.1%) involved mental disorders, followed by suicidal behavior (n=29, 12.4%), access to mental health care services (n=9, 3.7%), mental disorders-related symptomatology (n=8, 3.3%), and multiple categories together (n=6, 2.5%). Twelve associations (5.0%) achieved convincing (class I) or highly suggestive (class II) evidence. Regarding exposures to air pollution, there was convincing (class I) evidence for the association between long-term exposure to solvents and a higher incidence of dementia or cognitive impairment (odds ratio, OR=1.139), and highly suggestive (class II) evidence for the association between long-term exposure to some pollutants and higher risk for cognitive disorders (higher incidence of dementia with high vs. low levels of carbon monoxide, CO: OR=1.587; higher incidence of vascular dementia per 1 μg/m3 increase of nitrogen oxides, NOx: hazard ratio, HR=1.004). There was also highly suggestive (class II) evidence for the association between exposure to airborne particulate matter with diameter ≤10μm (PM10) during the second trimester of pregnancy and the incidence of post-partum depression (OR=1.023 per 1 μg/m3 increase); and for the association between short-term exposure to sulfur dioxide (SO2) and schizophrenia relapse (risk ratio, RR=1.005 and 1.004 per 1 μg/m3 increase, respectively 5 and 7 days after exposure). Regarding climate change hazards, there was highly suggestive (class II) evidence for the association between short-term exposure to increased temperature and suicide- or mental disorders-related mortality (RR=1.024), suicidal behavior (RR=1.012), and hospital access (i.e., hospitalization or emergency department visits) due to suicidal behavior or mental disorders (RR=1.011) or mental disorders only (RR=1.009) (RR values per 1°C increase). There was also highly suggestive (class II) evidence for the association between short-term exposure to increased apparent temperature (i.e., the temperature equivalent perceived by humans) and suicidal behavior (RR=1.01 per 1°C increase). Finally, there was highly suggestive (class II) evidence for the association between the temporal proximity of cyclone exposure and severity of symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder (r=0.275). Although most of the above associations were small in magnitude, they extend to the entire world population, and are therefore likely to have a substantial impact. This umbrella review classifies and quantifies for the first time the global negative impacts that air pollution and climate change can exert on mental health, identifying evidence-based targets that can inform future research and population health actions.

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Obesity, Metabolic Parameters and Clinical Values in the South Korean Adult Population

This study aimed to evaluate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on obesity, metabolic parameters, and clinical values in the South Korean population. Data from the seventh and eighth National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys were analyzed, comprising 3560 participants in 2018 (pre-COVID-19) and 3309 participants in 2021 (post-COVID-19). The study focused on adults aged 19 years and older who were overweight (BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2). The results showed a significant increase in waist circumference (approximately 2 cm), BMI (approximately 0.11 kg/m2), systolic blood pressure, fasting blood sugar (1.76 mg/dL higher), and glycated hemoglobin (0.14% higher) in the post-COVID-19 group compared to the pre-COVID-19 group. Additionally, the prevalence of hypercholesterolemia increased by 4% after the COVID-19 pandemic. These findings suggest an increased risk of obesity, abdominal obesity, and metabolic disorders, such as blood sugar disorders, in the post-COVID-19 period. Urine analysis revealed abnormal findings, including occult blood, urobilinogen, hematuria, proteinuria, ketone urea, glycosuria, and bacteriuria. The study highlights the negative impact of lifestyle changes, such as reduced physical activity and social gatherings, on physical vital signs and clinical values during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Professional regulation in the digital era: A qualitative case study of three professions in Ontario, Canada.

Technology is transforming service delivery and practice in many regulated professions, altering required skills, scopes of practice, and the organization of professional work. Professional regulators face considerable pressure to facilitate technology-enabled work while adapting to digital changes in their practices and procedures. However, our understanding of how regulators are responding to technology-driven risks and the impact of technology on regulatory policy is limited. To examine the impact of technology and digitalization on regulation, we conducted an exploratory case study of the regulatory bodies for nursing, law, and social work in Ontario, Canada. Data were collected over two phases. First, we collected documents from the regulators' websites and regulatory consortiums. Second, we conducted key informant interviews with two representatives from each regulator. Data were thematically analyzed to explore the impact of technological change on regulatory activities and policies and to compare how regulatory structure and field shape this impact. Five themes were identified in our analysis: balancing efficiency potential with risks of certain technological advances; the potential for improving regulation through data analytics; considering how to regulate a technologically competent workforce; recalibrating pandemic emergency measures involving technology; and contemplating the future of technology on regulatory policy and practice. Regulators face ongoing challenges with providing equity-based approaches to regulating virtual practice, ensuring practitioners are technologically competent, and leveraging regulatory data to inform decision-making. Policymakers and regulators across Canada and internationally should prioritize risk-balanced policies, guidelines, and practice standards to support professional practice in the digital era.

Design and fabrication of 3D-printed gastric floating tablets of captopril: effect of geometry and thermal crosslinking of polymer on floating behavior and drug release

The present study aims to investigate the potential of the 3D printing technique to design gastroretentive floating tablets (GFTs) for modifying the drug release profile of an immediate-release tablet. A 3D-printed floating shell enclosing a captopril tablet was designed having varying number of drug-release windows. The impact of geometrical changes in the design of delivery system and thermal cross-linking of polymers were evaluated to observe the influence on floating ability and drug release. Water uptake, water insolubilization, Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC), and Attenuated Total Reflection-Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (ATR-FTIR) were performed to assess the degree of thermal cross-linking of polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) filament. The 3D-printed GFT9 was considered the optimized gastric floating tablet that exhibited >12 h of total floating time with zero floating lag time and successfully accomplished modified-drug release by exhibiting >80% of drug release in 8 h. The zero-order release model, with an r2 value of 0.9923, best fitted the drug release kinetic data of the GFT9, which followed a super case II drug transport mechanism with an n value of 0.95. The optimized gastric floating device (GFT9) also exhibited the highest MDT values (238.55), representing slow drug release from the system due to thermal crosslinking and the presence of a single drug-releasing window in the device.

Vibration energy harvesting system with cyclically time-varying potential barrier

Nonlinear kinetic energy harvesters are becoming more and more popular as well as advanced and efficient. This paper presents the study of the dynamics of such a system in a wide range of excitation parameters, assuming at the same time the possibility of a cyclical and smooth change of the potential function. We have designed a system that allows to obtain a wide spectrum of potential characteristics, from a single well to a three-well system, and we have analyzed its effectiveness. Next, we checked the influence of parameters characterizing the change of potential using bifurcation diagrams and their comparison with the effective voltage values. We also analyzed the behavior of the system in chaotic and periodic motion zones and presented selected sections of Poincare and Fourier amplitude-frequency spectra of chaotic solutions. The last element of the analysis was the impact of cyclic potential change on coexisting solutions. We have shown that the best effectiveness is achieved when the frequency of the external load is equal to the resonant frequency of the flexible cantilever beam and the change of potential is limited to extreme positions.

Affordable Sensors for Speditive and Accurate Documentation of Built Heritage: First Tests and Preliminary Results

Abstract. When facing unregulated human interventions, the tumultuous backdrop of wars, and the relentless impact of climate change, a significant effect is held on those structures that stand as custodians of our cultural identity and historical legacy. The need to document their status is an essential first step toward preservation and restoration. This contribution will analyze and compare diverse datasets acquired through three distinct methods: Terrestrial Laser Scanner, Apple’s iPhone 15 Pro with no additional tool, and iPhone 15 Pro using Pix4D viDoc RTK Rover to assess the quality and accuracy of point clouds, as well as to determine the feasibility of each technique for the expeditious documentation of endangered built heritage. The use of mass-distributed low-cost sensors provides a rapid and cost-effective means to capture detailed 3D models of built heritage while, at the same time, democratizing the process of documentation. Low-cost sensors not only facilitate documentation but also enhance the efficiency of conservation efforts. The precision of LiDAR sensors helps identify structural vulnerabilities, allowing conservationists to prioritize interventions and allocate resources wisely. Furthermore, detailed imagery will enable conservationists to monitor subtle structural changes over time, acting as an early warning system against potential threats. As an additional aid, the RTK Rover enables centimeter-level positioning accuracy while maintaining a compact and fast deployable design, and the direct measurement of Ground Control Points (GCPs) significantly streamlines the surveying process and equipment footprint.

Quantitative analysis of the impact of climate variability and human activities on grassland productivity of the Qilian Mountain National Park, China.

To quantitatively analyze the impact of climate variability and human activities on grassland productivity of China's Qilian Mountain National Park, this study used Carnegic-Ames-Stanford Approach model (CASA) and Integrated Vegetation model improved by the Comprehensive and Sequential Classification System (CSCS) to assess the trends of grassland NPP from 2000 to 2015, the residual trend analysis method was used to quantify the impact of human activities and climate change on the grassland based on the NPP changes. The actual grassland NPP accumulation mainly occurred in June, July and August (autumn); the actual NPP showed a fluctuating upward trend with an average increase of 2.2 g C·m-2 a-1, while the potential NPP increase of 1.6 g C·m-2 a-1 and human-induced NPP decreased of 0.5 g C·m-2 a-1. The annual temperature showed a fluctuating upward trend with an average increase of 0.1°C 10a-1, but annual precipitation showed a fluctuating upward trend with an average annual increase of 1.3 mm a-1 from 2000 to 2015. The area and NPP of grassland degradation caused by climate variability was significantly greater than that caused by human activities and mainly distributed in the northwest and central regions, but area and NPP of grassland restored caused by human activities was significantly greater than that caused by climate variability and mainly distributed in the southeast regions. In conclusion, grassland in Qilian Mountain National Park showed a trend of degradation based on distribution area, but showed a trend of restoration based on actual NPP. Climate variability was the main cause of grassland degradation in the northwestern region of study area, and restoration of grassland in the eastern region was the result of the combined effects of human activities and climate variability. Under global climate change, the establishment of Qilian Mountain National Park was of great significance to the grassland's protection and the grasslands ecological restoration that have been affected by humans.

Temperature alters the predator-prey size relationships and size-selectivity of Southern Ocean fish

A primary response of many marine ectotherms to warming is a reduction in body size, to lower the metabolic costs associated with higher temperatures. The impact of such changes on ecosystem dynamics and stability will depend on the resulting changes to community size-structure, but few studies have investigated how temperature affects the relative size of predators and their prey in natural systems. We utilise >3700 prey size measurements from ten Southern Ocean lanternfish species sampled across >10° of latitude to investigate how temperature influences predator-prey size relationships and size-selective feeding. As temperature increased, we show that predators became closer in size to their prey, which was primarily associated with a decline in predator size and an increase in the relative abundance of intermediate-sized prey. The potential implications of these changes include reduced top-down control of prey populations and a reduction in the diversity of predator-prey interactions. Both of these factors could reduce the stability of community dynamics and ecosystem resistance to perturbations under ocean warming.

Influence of Xanthan Gum-Based Soil Conditioners on the Geotechnical Properties of Soils

The impact of climate change has become increasingly severe in forests, where droughts and strong winds on the one hand and extreme rainfall events on the other hand can damage forest ecosystems. To mitigate the effects of drought and enhance soil water retention capacity, three types of soil conditioners (SCs), labeled SC_R, SC_CG, and SC_ZZC, were developed as part of the European project ONEforest. All the conditioners are based on Xanthan gum and have different types and amounts of fillers with diverse cellulose fiber lengths. These can offer the potential to optimize the SC characteristics, e.g., water absorption, water retention, and mechanical stability. This paper focuses on the influence of fillers in the SCs on the geotechnical properties of forest soils from Ljubelj in the Alpine part of Slovenia (S1), Catalonia, northeastern Spain (S2), and Heldburg, Germany (S3). The results show an increase of 53% to 100% in the water absorption of treated soil. A less favorable impact of the SCs was found on the drained shear strength and the compressibility. The drained shear strength of untreated forest soils in a saturated state was S1 c′ = 4.4 kPa, φ′ = 33.5°; S2 c′ = 1.4 kPa, φ′ = 30.0°; and S3 c′ = 12 kPa, φ′ = 28.0°. The addition of SCs results in a reduction in the drained shear strength of saturated mixtures. The reduction depends on the dosage of added SC—whether it is a low (L) or a high (H) dosage. For instance, when the soil S1 was treated with a low dosage of the soil conditioner SC_R, it demonstrated a cohesion (c′) of 11 kPa and a friction angle (φ′) of 27.0°. However, increasing the dosage of the SC_R led to a decrease in both the cohesion and the friction angle for the same soil (c′ = 7.7 kPa, φ′ = 25.0°). Additionally, the type of soil conditioner also impacts the drained shear strength. Among the mixtures with a high dosage of the SC_R, SC_CG, or SC_ZZC, those containing the SC_CG with the longest fibers stand out, demonstrating the highest friction angle. Therefore, longer fibers can be a promising component of the SCs to reduce the negative influence of XG on the mechanical properties of treated soils.

THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE SUSTAINABILITY OF WINE PRODUCTION AND THE STRUCTURE OF WINE CONSUMPTION IN THE NORTHEAST REGION OF ROMANIA

This study was carried out with the aim of investigating and analysing different aspects related to viticulture and wine production in the northeast region of Romania. The methodology focused on the use of statistical data and field research, with an emphasis on the impact of potential climate change on wine production and consumer preferences. The analysis of the evolution of vine cultivation in the northeast region of Romania was carried out using statistical data on grape harvest, area planted to vines and wine production. The results showed significant changes in these indicators over the period analysed (2013-2022), reflecting the dynamics of the wine industry in the region. A survey of a sample of 50 respondents provided relevant data on their preferences. Analysis of this data revealed information on preferred wine types, consumption habits and purchasing preferences. Although the population‘s preference for white wine is evident, climate change may pose a challenge for the region, and in the future, it may be necessary to adapt vineyard locations and cultivate vine varieties more suitable for red wine production. These issues have important implications for planning and developing the future of the wine industry in the northeast region.

Climate change, malaria and neglected tropical diseases: a scoping review.

To explore the effects of climate change on malaria and 20 neglected tropical diseases (NTDs), and potential effect amelioration through mitigation and adaptation, we searched for papers published from January 2010 to October 2023. We descriptively synthesised extracted data. We analysed numbers of papers meeting our inclusion criteria by country and national disease burden, healthcare access and quality index (HAQI), as well as by climate vulnerability score. From 42 693 retrieved records, 1543 full-text papers were assessed. Of 511 papers meeting the inclusion criteria, 185 studied malaria, 181 dengue and chikungunya and 53 leishmaniasis; other NTDs were relatively understudied. Mitigation was considered in 174 papers (34%) and adaption strategies in 24 (5%). Amplitude and direction of effects of climate change on malaria and NTDs are likely to vary by disease and location, be non-linear and evolve over time. Available analyses do not allow confident prediction of the overall global impact of climate change on these diseases. For dengue and chikungunya and the group of non-vector-borne NTDs, the literature privileged consideration of current low-burden countries with a high HAQI. No leishmaniasis papers considered outcomes in East Africa. Comprehensive, collaborative and standardised modelling efforts are needed to better understand how climate change will directly and indirectly affect malaria and NTDs.

The impact of precipitation changes on the safety of railway operations in China under the background of climate change

Global climate change has intensified the water cycle, leading to frequent extreme precipitation events, posing a significant threat to railway infrastructure and safety operations. Based on the analysis of past and future precipitation changes in China, this study investigates the impact of climate change on railway safety operations. The study reveals the following findings: (1) Under the influence of the intensified East Asian summer monsoon and the northward shift of the subtropical high during the 2017–2021 compared to the 2012–2016, precipitation has significantly decreased (120 mm) in the regions south of the Yangtze River and South China, while it has increased (60 mm) in the regions from the eastern of Northwest China to the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River; The operational precipitation risk has decreased for Urumqi, Lanzhou, Qinghai-Tibet Group, Xi’an, and Wuhan railway bureaus (abbreviated as Bureau), while it has increased for Nanchang, Chengdu, Zhengzhou, Shanghai, and Shenyang Bureaus. Particularly noteworthy is that despite a decrease in total annual precipitation for Nanchang bureau (15.3 mm/a), the frequency of intense precipitation events has increased, leading to an increased operational precipitation risk. (2) During the 21st century, under high (SSP5-8.5), medium (SSP2-4.5), and low (SSP1-2.6) forcing scenarios, all projections indicate that most of the China will experience an increasing trend in precipitation, with significant increases in precipitation observed in the regions south of the Yangtze Rive, South and Southwest China. The higher the greenhouse gas emissions, the more pronounced the increasing trend in precipitation. (3) Compared to the 20th century, under high (SSP5-8.5), medium (SSP2-4.5), and low (SSP1-2.6) forcing scenarios, all projections indicate that the total annual precipitation hours, railway inspection, speed limit, and closure risk hours have all increased on a national scale during the 21st century. The operational precipitation risk for railways has also increased. The higher the alert level for railway precipitation (precipitation &amp;lt; inspection &amp;lt; speed limit &amp;lt; closure), the higher the proportion of risk hours compared to the 20th century. By the late 21st century, the railway inspection, speed limit, and closure risk hours have increased by 175%, 463%, and 647%, respectively, compared to the 20th century.

Bayesian Framework for Uncertainty Quantification and Bias Correction of Projected Streamflow in Climate Change Impact Assessment

Bayesian Framework for Uncertainty Quantification and Bias Correction of Projected Streamflow in Climate Change Impact Assessment

Traded Plastic, Traded Impacts? Designing Counterfactual Scenarios to Assess Environmental Impacts of Global Plastic Waste Trade.

The global trade of plastic waste has raised environmental concerns, especially regarding pollution in waste-importing countries. However, the overall environmental contribution remains unclear due to uncertain treatment shares between handling plastic waste abroad and domestically. Here, we conduct a life cycle assessment of global plastic waste trade in 2022 across 18 countries and six plastic waste types, alongside three "nontrade" counterfactual scenarios. By considering the required cycling rate, which balances importers' costs and recycling revenues, we find that the trade resulted in lower environmental impacts than treating domestically with the average treatment mix. The trade scenario alone reduced climate change impact by 2.85 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent and mitigated damages to ecosystem quality, human health, and resource availability by 12 species-years, 6200 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and 1.4 billion United States dollars (USD in 2013), respectively. These results underscore the significance of recognizing plastic waste trade as a pivotal factor in regulating global secondary plastic production when formulating a global plastics treaty.